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Herman Kahn Quotes

For some years I have spent my time on exactly these questions - both in thinking about ways to prevent war, and in thinking about how to fight, survive, and terminate a war, should it occur Picture Quote #1

From a scientific perspective there is some indication that a nuclear war could deplete the earth’s ozone layer or, less likely, could bring on a new Ice Age - but there is no suggestion that either the created order or mankind would be destroyed in the process Picture Quote #1

I’m against sloppy, emotional thinking Picture Quote #1

Deterrence itself is not a preeminent value; the primary values are safety and morality Picture Quote #1

I am against the whole cliche of the moment Picture Quote #1

I’m against fashionable thinking Picture Quote #1

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Many people believe that the current system must inevitably end in total annihilation. They reject, sometimes very emotionally, any attempts to analyze this notion Picture Quote #1

Nevertheless, during the sixty years of the twentieth century many problems have come increasingly into the realm of acceptable public discussion Picture Quote #1

Clearly, the first task is to gain acceptance of a more reasonable view of the future, one that opens possibilities rather than forecloses them Picture Quote #1

As for total disarmament, there are almost 50,000 nuclear weapons in the world today; even if they were banned, not all would be destroyed Picture Quote #1

I’m against ignorance. I’m against sloppy, emotional thinking. I’m against fashionable thinking. I am against the whole cliché of the moment Picture Quote #1

Authority is not power; that’s coercion. Authority is not knowledge; that’s persuasion, or seduction. Authority is simply that the author has the right to make a statement and to be heard Picture Quote #1

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Only those who are ideologically opposed to military programs think of the defense budget as the first and best place to get resources for social welfare needs Picture Quote #1

Nuclear weapons are intrinsically neither moral nor immoral, though they are more prone to immoral use than most weapons Picture Quote #1

Nuclear war is such an emotional subject that many people see the weapons themselves as the common enemy of humanity Picture Quote #1

New developments in weapon systems during the 1950s and early 1960s created a situation that was most dangerous, and even conducive to accidental war Picture Quote #1

My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained Picture Quote #1

Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly Picture Quote #1

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It is immoral from almost any point of view to refuse to defend yourself and others from very grave and terrible threats, even as there are limits to the means that can be used in such defense Picture Quote #1

In a world which is armed to its teeth with nuclear weapons, every quarrel or difference of opinion may lead to violence of a kind quite different from what is possible today Picture Quote #1

In 1960 I published a book that attempted to direct attention to the possibility of a thermonuclear war, to ways of reducing the likelihood of such a war, and to methods for coping with the consequences should war occur despite our efforts to avoid it Picture Quote #1

Human and moral factors must always be considered. They must never be missing from policies and from public discussion Picture Quote #1

Hopefully, nations will refuse to accept a situation in which nuclear accidents actually do occur, and, if at all possible, they will do something to correct a system which makes them likely Picture Quote #1

For if enough people were really convinced that growth should be halted, and if they acted on that conviction, then billions of others might be deprived of any realistic hope of gaining the opportunities now enjoyed by the more fortunate Picture Quote #1

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Because of new technologies, new wealth, new conditions of domestic life and of international relations, unprecedented criteria and issues are coming up for national decision Picture Quote #1

A surprising number of government committees will make important decisions on fundamental matters with less attention than each individual would give to buying a suit Picture Quote #1

A healthy and fully functioning society must allocate its resources among a variety of competing interests, all of which are more or less valid but none of which should take precedence over national security Picture Quote #1

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Text Quotes

For some years I have spent my time on exactly these questions - both in thinking about ways to prevent war, and in thinking about how to fight, survive, and terminate a war, should it occur. (Herman Kahn Quotes) From a scientific perspective there is some indication that a nuclear war could deplete the earth’s ozone layer or, less likely, could bring on a new Ice Age - but there is no suggestion that either the created order or mankind would be destroyed in the process. (Herman Kahn Quotes) I’m against sloppy, emotional thinking (Herman Kahn Quotes) Deterrence itself is not a preeminent value; the primary values are safety and morality (Herman Kahn Quotes) I am against the whole cliche of the moment (Herman Kahn Quotes) I’m against fashionable thinking (Herman Kahn Quotes) Many people believe that the current system must inevitably end in total annihilation. They reject, sometimes very emotionally, any attempts to analyze this notion (Herman Kahn Quotes) Nevertheless, during the sixty years of the twentieth century many problems have come increasingly into the realm of acceptable public discussion (Herman Kahn Quotes) Clearly, the first task is to gain acceptance of a more reasonable view of the future, one that opens possibilities rather than forecloses them (Herman Kahn Quotes) As for total disarmament, there are almost 50,000 nuclear weapons in the world today; even if they were banned, not all would be destroyed (Herman Kahn Quotes) I’m against ignorance. I’m against sloppy, emotional thinking. I’m against fashionable thinking. I am against the whole cliché of the moment (Herman Kahn Quotes) Authority is not power; that’s coercion. Authority is not knowledge; that’s persuasion, or seduction. Authority is simply that the author has the right to make a statement and to be heard (Herman Kahn Quotes) Only those who are ideologically opposed to military programs think of the defense budget as the first and best place to get resources for social welfare needs (Herman Kahn Quotes) Nuclear weapons are intrinsically neither moral nor immoral, though they are more prone to immoral use than most weapons (Herman Kahn Quotes) Nuclear war is such an emotional subject that many people see the weapons themselves as the common enemy of humanity (Herman Kahn Quotes) New developments in weapon systems during the 1950s and early 1960s created a situation that was most dangerous, and even conducive to accidental war (Herman Kahn Quotes) My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained (Herman Kahn Quotes) Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly (Herman Kahn Quotes) It is immoral from almost any point of view to refuse to defend yourself and others from very grave and terrible threats, even as there are limits to the means that can be used in such defense (Herman Kahn Quotes) In a world which is armed to its teeth with nuclear weapons, every quarrel or difference of opinion may lead to violence of a kind quite different from what is possible today (Herman Kahn Quotes) In 1960 I published a book that attempted to direct attention to the possibility of a thermonuclear war, to ways of reducing the likelihood of such a war, and to methods for coping with the consequences should war occur despite our efforts to avoid it (Herman Kahn Quotes) Human and moral factors must always be considered. They must never be missing from policies and from public discussion (Herman Kahn Quotes) Hopefully, nations will refuse to accept a situation in which nuclear accidents actually do occur, and, if at all possible, they will do something to correct a system which makes them likely (Herman Kahn Quotes) For if enough people were really convinced that growth should be halted, and if they acted on that conviction, then billions of others might be deprived of any realistic hope of gaining the opportunities now enjoyed by the more fortunate (Herman Kahn Quotes) Because of new technologies, new wealth, new conditions of domestic life and of international relations, unprecedented criteria and issues are coming up for national decision (Herman Kahn Quotes) A surprising number of government committees will make important decisions on fundamental matters with less attention than each individual would give to buying a suit (Herman Kahn Quotes) A healthy and fully functioning society must allocate its resources among a variety of competing interests, all of which are more or less valid but none of which should take precedence over national security (Herman Kahn Quotes)