The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable

John Kenneth Galbraith was a renowned economist and public intellectual who was known for his sharp wit and insightful commentary on economic issues. One of his most famous quotes is, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” This statement encapsulates Galbraith’s skepticism towards the accuracy and reliability of economic forecasting.

Galbraith believed that economic forecasting was inherently flawed because it relied on assumptions and models that were often based on incomplete or inaccurate data. He argued that the complexity and unpredictability of the global economy made it impossible to accurately predict future economic trends with any degree of certainty. In his view, economic forecasting was more akin to a form of guesswork or speculation than a legitimate scientific endeavor.

Galbraith’s comparison of economic forecasting to astrology was not meant to be taken literally, but rather as a critique of the overconfidence and hubris of many economists and policymakers who placed too much faith in their ability to predict the future. Like astrology, economic forecasting often involved making bold predictions based on limited information and subjective interpretations of data. Galbraith believed that this approach was not only misguided but also dangerous, as it could lead to misguided policy decisions and economic instability.

Instead of relying on economic forecasting, Galbraith advocated for a more pragmatic and cautious approach to economic policy-making. He believed that policymakers should focus on addressing immediate problems and promoting long-term stability rather than trying to predict and control the future. Galbraith’s skepticism towards economic forecasting was rooted in his belief that the economy was too complex and dynamic to be accurately predicted or controlled.